The researchers said:
“We failed to find that countries or U.S. states that implemented shelter-in-place policies earlier, and in which shelter-in-place policies had longer to operate, had lower excess deaths than countries-and U.S. states that were slower to implement shelter-in-place policies. We also failed to observe differences in excess death trends before and after the implementation of [shelter-in-place] policies based on pre-shelter-in-place COVID-19 death rates.”
www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28930/w28930.pdf
THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND POLICY RESPONSES ONEXCESS MORTALITYVirat AgrawalJonathan H. CantorNeeraj SoodChristopher M. WhaleyWorking Paper BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138June 2021