Tag Archives: European Union

Predictions for 2012

1) Starting tonight, Ron Paul will begin winning caucuses. This will be followed by either an assassination, or, in the long term, prosperity. Remember, they killed Bobby Kennedy after he began winning primaries. The chances of this are probably small. I do think there are powerful people and institution who would consider it.

If Ron Paul is assassinated, it’ll be followed by isolated instances of violence against federal institutions. These will be used to discredit anything libertarian. Government will declare new powers for itself, and the gigantic anti-terrorism apparatus will turn its full attention to Americans. An assassination would also be followed by large scale tax protests which would cripple the state. They will resort to printing money and slander tax protesters as domestic terrorists.

If, on the other hand, Ron Paul wins the primary, he will defeat Obama. Democrats will defect en masse to support him. The media mud slingers will realize their impotence. The markets will celebrate, perhaps with the exception of large commercial banks. They will threaten to blow-up the economy as revenge upon a public that elected Ron Paul. We will call their bluff.

2) At least one country will leave the Euro Zone. The EU will remain intact, but calls to end it will grow louder and more insistent. The turmoil in Europe will continue to create the illusion of economic stability in the U.S. and capital will flow away from the headlines, but once things have stabilized there, expect the much bigger and much more destructive problems of the U.S. to resume their unfolding. The prices of precious metals will resume their climb. Let’s hope Ron Paul is in power so the crisis isn’t used to lead us further down the road to serfdom.

3) SOPA, the Stop Online Piracy Act, a thinly veiled attempt to censor the internet will fail. However, it’s proponents will very quickly put another piece of legislation on the table. They will not stop until it is passed.

4) A massive troop reduction will occur in Afghanistan. It will be done for political reasons. The media will spend weeks praising Obama.

5) A galvanizing incident will be provoked or staged in Iran. There will be an outbreak of hostility, but the United States, despite the propaganda from neo-con politicians and the media will not fully commit to a war.

See also, predictions for:
2011
2010
2009
2008

Euro breakup looking more likely

Banks Build Contingency for Breakup of the Euro open quoteFor the growing chorus of observers who fear that a breakup of the euro zone might be at hand, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has a pointed rebuke: It’s never going to happen.

But some banks are no longer so sure, especially as the sovereign debt crisis threatened to ensnare Germany itself this week, when investors began to question the nation’s stature as Europe’s main pillar of stability.

On Friday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Belgium’s credit standing to AA from AA+, saying it might not be able to cut its towering debt load any time soon. Ratings agencies this week cautioned that France could lose its AAA rating if the crisis grew. On Thursday, agencies lowered the ratings of Portugal and Hungary to junk.

While European leaders still say there is no need to draw up a Plan B, some of the world’s biggest banks, and their supervisors, are doing just that.

. . . .

Banks including Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital and Nomura issued a cascade of reports this week examining the likelihood of a breakup of the euro zone. “The euro zone financial crisis has entered a far more dangerous phase,” analysts at Nomura wrote on Friday. Unless the European Central Bank steps in to help where politicians have failed, “a euro breakup now appears probable rather than possible,” the bank said.close quote (Read more)

***

Premarket: Now Germany can’t sell bonds open quoteOne of Germany’s worst bond sales since the launch of the euro sparked concerns the debt crisis was even beginning to threaten Berlin.The Bundesbank was forced to buy 39 per cent of the 6 billion euros of debt Germany had hoped to sell to investors after banks bought just 3.644 billion euros of the issue. close quote (Read more)

Europe Bans Airport Body Scanners For “Health and Safety” Concerns

open quoteThe European Union issued a ruling this week that bans X-ray body scanners in all European airports. According to the European Commission, the agency charged with enforcing the ruling across the EU’s 27 member nations, the prohibition is necessary “in order not to risk jeopardizing citizens’ health and safety.”

X-ray body scanners, which use “backscatter” ionized radiation technology, emit enough radiation to theoretically damage DNA and cause cancer.close quote (Read more)

One Failed European Intervention Leads to Another

From Open Europe‘s news summary of November 22nd:

Commission wants right to intervene directly in member states’ budgets;
German government: Eurobonds no “panacea” for eurozone crisis
In an interview with FTD, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn argues for “the functioning of the eurozone to be improved through better coordination and tighter fiscal surveillance”, which would include having to clear national budgets in Brussels in order to ensure that rules on budgetary stability are adhered to. According to a draft copy of the Commission’s legislative package seen by Süddeutsche Zeitung, member states would have to submit their draft budgets to Brussels by April 15 in order for the Commission to provide comments and suggestions. The budget would then be discussed nationally and resubmitted by October 15 in order to get the Commission’s final approval. Rehn argues that the Treaty changes urged by Germany would not be necessary to achieve this, although he added that the Commission did not exclude this possibility. Handelsblatt reports that a source close to German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that her goal is a Treaty amendment which allows for similar budgetary intervention and an enforcement role for the European Court of Justice, and according to experts, such a change can be achieved through a protocol added to the EU Treaties.

Commentary by Patrick Barron:

The crisis in Europe is a textbook example (Austrian economics textbook, that is…) of how the adverse consequence of one failed market intervention leads to another and another until the state, or in this case the European Union super state, controls all economic life at the expense of personal liberty.

The failed attempt at establishing a common currency has created a tragedy of the commons (see Philipp Bagus’ excellent book The Tragedy of the Euro), whereby the most irresponsible nations are rewarded for their irresponsibility. Now, instead of simply abandoning the failed project and considering something with a real track record–dare I say “gold standard” or money freely chosen by the market?–the elitists of Europe plan to move to the next step of trying to run the supposedly independent and sovereign countries that comprise the European Monetary Union from their cushy desks in Brussels.

EU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration

open quoteBrussels bureaucrats were ridiculed yesterday after banning drink manufacturers from claiming that water can prevent dehydration. . . .

A meeting of 21 scientists in Parma, Italy, concluded that reduced water content in the body was a symptom of dehydration and not something that drinking water could subsequently control.

Now the EFSA verdict has been turned into an EU directive which was issued on Wednesday.

Ukip MEP Paul Nuttall said the ruling made the “bendy banana law” look “positively sane”.

He said: “I had to read this four or five times before I believed it. It is a perfect example of what Brussels does best. Spend three years, with 20 separate pieces of correspondence before summoning 21 professors to Parma where they decide with great solemnity that drinking water cannot be sold as a way to combat dehydration.

“Then they make this judgment law and make it clear that if anybody dares sell water claiming that it is effective against dehydration they could get into serious legal bother. close quote (Read more)

France unveils $138bn bid to slash deficit

open quoteThe French government has announced a package of austerity measures it says will save around $138bn (100 billion euros) as part of plans to eliminate the country’s budget deficit by 2016.

Officials said the plan, announced on Monday, would save about $9.6bn in 2012, followed by savings of about $16bn in 2013 as France seeks to protect its AAA credit rating and avoid the financial market pressure engulfing other major eurozone economies such as Italy and Greece.close quote (Read more aljazeera.com)

Italy on the Brink of Real Report?

open quote Italy’s new government contains no elected politicians;
Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to unveil his government’s agenda ahead of vote of confidence in the Italian Senate this afternoon
Italy’s newly appointed Prime Minister Mario Monti yesterday disclosed the list of ministers who will form his government. The new cabinet doesn’t include any politicians, with several key ministries assigned to academics. Monti opted to appoint himself as interim Economy Minister as well, although he said he would nominate four deputies soon. Monti will unveil his agenda this afternoon, ahead of a vote of confidence in the Italian Senate. According to La Stampa, Monti is expected to address several controversial issues, including further reform of the Italian pension system, a privatisation plan and concrete measures to liberalise Italy’s labour market. The vote of confidence in the lower house of the Italian parliament is scheduled for tomorrow.close quote (Read more openeurope.org)

Former Federal Reserve Economist Likely Next Prime Minister of Greece

open quote“Lucas Papademos will be as of tomorrow the new prime minister of the country after the agreement that the outgoing Prime Minister George Papandreou and the opposition head Antonis Samaras reached last night,” reports the Greek daily Ta Nea.

Papademos is a 100% bankster tool. There will never ever be even the suggestion of a referendum on any program the banksters want passed. It will simply be passed.

Papademos is currently a visiting professor of public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He was previously a vice president of the European Central Bank and also served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

He is a Trilateral Commission member. close quote (Read more economicpolicyjournal.com)