Monthly Archives: January 2011
Israel on Iran: So wrong for so long
Officials at the U.S. Department of State, we learned from the secret cables released by WikiLeaks last week, have serious questions about the accuracy — and sincerity — of Israeli predictions about when Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon. As one State official wrote in response to an Israeli general’s November 2009 claim that Iran would have a bomb in one year: “It is unclear if the Israelis firmly believe this or are using worst-case estimates to raise greater urgency from the United States.”
So we thought this was as good a time as any to look at the remarkable history of incorrect Israeli predictions about Iran — especially given that the WikiLeaks trove is being used to argue that an attack on Iran is becoming more likely.
According to various Israeli government predictions over the years, Iran was going to have a bomb by the mid-90s — or 1998, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and finally 2010. More recent Israeli predictions have put that date at 2011 or 2014.
. . . .
Here we go:
October 1992: “Warning the international community that Iran would be armed with a nuclear bomb by 1999, Peres told France 3 television in October 1992 that ‘Iran is the greatest threat [to peace] and greatest problem in the Middle East … because it seeks the nuclear option while holding a highly dangerous stance of extreme religious militantism.'”
Source: Then-Foreign Minister Shimon Peres in an interview with French TV, as described in the book ” Treacherous Alliance .”
November 1992: “But the Israelis caution that a bigger threat to Middle East serenity — not to mention their own country’s security — lies in Teheran, whose regime they say is sure to become a nuclear power in a few years unless stopped.”
Source: New York Times, “Israel Focuses on the Threat Beyond the Arabs — in Iran”
January 1995: “Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought, and could be less than five years away from having an atomic bomb, several senior American and Israeli officials say.”
Source: New York Times, “Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. and Israeli Officials Fear”
1995: “The best estimates at this time place Iran between three and five years away from possessing the prerequisites required for the independent production of nuclear weapons.”
Source: Benjamin Netanyahu, in his book “Fighting Terrorism: How Democracies Can Defeat the International Terrorist Network”
February 1996: “On February 15, 1996, Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak told members of the UN Security Council that Iran would be able to produce nuclear weapons within eight years.”
Source: Barak comments reported in ” Treacherous Alliance ”
April 1996: “I believe that in four years they [Iran] may reach nuclear weapons,” [Israeli Prime Minister Shimon] Peres told ABC television during an interview.
Source: Agence France Presse, “Iran could have nuclear weapons in four years: Peres” (via Nexis)
November 1999: “Unless the United States pressures Russia to end its military assistance to Iran, the Islamic republic will possess a nuclear capability within five years, a senior Israeli military official said Sunday.”
Source: Associated Press, “Israeli official: U.S. must pressure Russia to end military cooperation with Iran” (via Nexis)
July 2001: “‘I mentioned to our friends, the Turkish leadership, that we are more than worried about the very rapid development taking place regarding nuclear weapons,’ [Minister of Defense] Binyamin Ben-Eliezer told reporters. ‘As far as we know by the year 2005 they [Iran] will, they might, be ready.'”
Source: Associated Press, “Israeli defense minister: Iran could have nuclear weapons by 2005” (via Nexis)
August 2003: “Iran will have the materials needed to make a nuclear bomb by 2004 and will have an operative nuclear weapons program by 2005, a high-ranking military officer told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.”
Source: Jerusalem Post, “Iran can produce nuclear bomb by 2005 – IDF”
February 2009: “Netanyahu said he did not know for certain how close Iran was to developing a nuclear weapons capability, but that ‘our experts’ say Iran was probably only one or two years away and that was why they wanted open ended negotiations.”
Source: Then-candidate for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in conversation with an American congressional delegation, as described in a cable released by WikiLeaks
June 2009: Barak estimated a window between 6 and 18 months from now in which stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons might still be viable.
Source: Defense Minister Ehud Barak in conversation with members of Congress, as described in a cable released by WikiLeaks
June 2009: “Unless their programme experiences technical problems, the Iranians will have by 2014 a bomb ready to be used, which would represent a concrete threat for Israel,” said [Mossad chief] Meir Dagan.
Source: Agence France Press, “Iran will have nuclear bomb by 2014: Mossad”
November 2009: “General Baidatz argued that it would take Iran one year to obtain a nuclear weapon and two and a half years to build an arsenal of three weapons.”
Source: Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, an Israeli military intelligence official, in conversation with an American defense official, as described in a WikiLeaks cable.
September 2010: “The reasoning offered by Israeli decision makers was uncomplicated: Iran is, at most, one to three years away from having a breakout nuclear capability (often understood to be the capacity to assemble more than one missile-ready nuclear device within about three months of deciding to do so).”
Source: Jeffrey Goldberg, reporting the Israeli point of view in a cover story on Iran in the Atlantic
(Read more from salon.com)
A Walled Wide Web for Nervous Autocrats
Not often I agree with President Putin, but I share his concern. Notice the negative spin the WSJ gives his action, especially in the title.
At the end of 2010, the “open-source” software movement, whose activists tend to be fringe academics and ponytailed computer geeks, found an unusual ally: the Russian government. Vladimir Putin signed a 20-page executive order requiring all public institutions in Russia to replace proprietary software, developed by companies like Microsoft and Adobe, with free open-source alternatives by 2015.
The move will save billions of dollars in licensing fees, but Mr. Putin’s motives are not strictly economic. In all likelihood, his real fear is that Russia’s growing dependence on proprietary software, especially programs sold by foreign vendors, has immense implications for the country’s national security. Free open-source software, by its nature, is unlikely to feature secret back doors that lead directly to Langley, Va. (Read more from online.wsj.com)
Ron Paul on raising the debt ceiling
The looming choice between government default and dollar collapse.
Obesity, Global Warming, TSA Groping, Wikileaks, Permanent Afghanistan Occupation = National Security?
The Southern Avenger, right as usual:
Executive branch bureaucrats rammed through internet regulation despite Judicial and Legislative branch disapproval.
Lindsey Graham wants U.S. military to stay in Afghanistan forever.
Everything becoming the government’s business under the auspices of national security.
US subpoenas Wikileaks tweets
Intellectual Property helps makes this behavior possible. In an IP-free world, people could more easily abandon a company that cooperates with abusive governments (like ours), but in our world, where ideas are considered property, and imitation can be halted by means of government violence, it is much less likely companies will have a reason to resist such invasive actions.
he US government has subpoenaed Twitter in a bid to support an ongoing criminal investigation into whether Wikileaks and people involved or connected to Wikileaks, including an Icelandic member of parliament, broke the law.
According to Wikileaks lawyer Mark Stephens live on the BBC News a short time ago, it is believed Facebook and Google (see here) have also been contacted regarding Wikileaks members and potential whistleblowers.
Update (12:20am GMT): Mark Stephens on the BBC News also makes clear that the court order will also cover the “600,000 odd followers that Wikileaks has on Twitter“. (Read more from zdnet.com)
FBI Raids ISPs Trying to Track Down ‘Anonymous’
Efforts to track down the “Anonymous” group involved in the Operation Payback DDoS attacks have included an FBI raid against a Texas-based server-hosting company according to recent reports.
Other raids have been reported in Germany and British Columbia relating to the attacks, but they don’t appear to have led to any new arrests. So far the arrest of a 16 year old Dutchman for his involvement in the attacks was the only one which has come.
But the documents suggest that the FBI is really keen on tracking down those involved, and has been targeting the IP addresses used in the organization of the attacks. Officials have declined comment on what information was garnered from the seizure of servers involved.
Though “Anonymous” predates the recent high-profile attacks, the organization’s use of a “voluntary botnet” to attack the websites of organizations which have moved against WikiLeaks has garnered them enormous media attention, as well as attention from law enforcement. The group briefly downed the websites of Visa and MasterCard early in December. (Read more from news.antiwar.com)
Illinois increases income tax from 3 to 5%
They should sell roads or lay off gov’t employees instead. When businesses are irresponsible, they go bankrupt. They suffer silently. When governments are irresponsible, they cry like the spoiled children they are, then figure out a way to take more money by force in the name of “essential services.”
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn defended a massive increase in state income taxes passed by lawmakers Wednesday and promised to quickly sign the measure to help heal the state’s ailing finances.
Lawmakers worked overnight to pass the increase to raise the personal income tax rate from 3 percent to 5 percent for four years — a 66 percent increase. Corporate income taxes also will rise, but Quinn rejected the notion that it would decimate businesses.
The rate increase might be the biggest any state has adopted in percentage terms while grappling with recent economic woes. Nevertheless, Illinois’ tax rate would remain lower than in several other states in the region. (Read more from news.yahoo.com)
Wikileaks: Israeli intelligence chief regarded 2007 Islamic takeover of Gaza as positive step
Moments before Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, former Director of Military Intelligence Major General Amos Yadlin said he would “be happy” if it happened, a diplomatic cable published on WikiLeaks revealed on Monday.
. . . .
The military intelligence chief, who recently retired and was highly esteemed among Israel’s political and military echelons, underrated Iran’s involvement in the Strip “as long as they have no (air or sea) port.”
According to the document Yadlin said a Hamas takeover would be a positive step, because Israel would then be able to declare Gaza as a hostile entity.
A few days later, his prediction came true as Hamas took control of the Strip.
The American ambassador noted that if Fatah loses control of the Strip, Abbas would be urged to form a separate government in the West Bank. (Read more from ynetnews.com)
Israel destroyed Syria nuclear reactor: WikiLeaks
Israel destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor in an air raid just weeks before it went online in 2007, said a US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks and published on Friday in an Israeli daily. “On September 6, 2007, Israel destroyed the nuclear reactor built by Syria secretly, apparently with North Korea’s help,” then US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice wrote in the cable published in Yediot Aharonot newspaper. (Read more from hindustantimes.com)
SA@TAC – Targeting the Tea Party
Schiff on Jobs Report, U.S. Constitution
* Disappointing non-farm payroll report.
* Official unemployment rate drop applauded. 9.8 to 9.4% This is only because 250,000,000 people left official workforce — i.e. aren’t collect unemployment benefits.
* Dollar down against most currencies. Euro concerns probably kept it from really getting clobbered.
* Ben Bernanke said number confirm economy is growing, except without jobs.
* “The reason it’s jobless, is because it’s not a recovery. . . . It’s just printing money and spending it.”
* NY Times article equates Republicans’ reading of the Consitution with racism, ignoring the Constitution with “interpreting” the Constitution. Author claims Legislature should ignore Constitution and only Judicial branch should worry about it.
The Bigotry of the Literati (1954) ~Mises
From Ludwig Von Mises’s book, The Anti-Capitalist Mentality.
British MP John McDonnell calls for people’s revolutionary masses to collect taxes
Cued video here.
He asks to publish a list of the top 100 tax evaders and avoiders. (Tax avoidance is legal. Not working is the simplest form of tax avoidance.) He envisions the angry masses showing up at their offices as tax collectors.