Daily Archives: 30 May 2009

The World Does Not Need a Reserve Currency

“The failure of the U.S. to uphold its commitments under the Bretton Woods Agreement to redeem the dollar for gold at $35 per ounce was the primary cause of the great inflation in all the world’s currencies. Just to recap events: In 1944 the allied powers agreed that the dollar would serve the same role as gold for the purposes of international currency settlements after World War II. At that time the U.S. owned (or safe kept for allied governments who were at war and whose territories were threatened by invasion) most of the gold reserves of the allied central banks. As long as the U.S. would keep its dollar to gold ratio at the agreed-upon $35 per ounce ratio, central banks around the world could settle their trading accounts in dollars. These central banks would maintain an agreed-upon ratio of dollars to their local currencies just for this purpose. The world would be on a ‘gold exchange standard’. If one country inflated its currency, its trading partners would demand dollars in exchange far in excess of the profligate country’s ability to pay. It would be forced to deflate. Just as the case under a true international gold standard, that country’s prices would fall, its exports would increase, thus generating dollar reserves and all would be back to equilibrium. The key to this whole program was the promise of the United States itself not to inflate. But, of course, this is exactly what it did.

Theoretically, the U.S. should have been placed in the same position as any other country that inflated its currency–instead of running out of dollars, the U.S. would run out of gold. Its gold reserves did dwindle, which should have set off alarms at the International Monetary Fund, which was charged with the job of auditing the gold supplies of the U.S. and ensuring that it honored its obligations. But the IMF did not do its job. Why? This enters the arena of psychology, but I imagine that the Cold War had something to do with it. The U.S. alone was capable of protecting the Allies from the growing Soviet threat. Perhaps the Allies and the IMF felt an obligation not to criticize their protector. Who knows? But once France got the atomic bomb and a president—Charles de Gaulle—who felt comfortable acting as an equal on the international stage, it no longer felt that it needed to cow tow to the U.S. So in 1963 France demanded to be repaid in gold for its ever-increasing stockpile of dollars. This should have instilled much needed fiscal and monetary discipline in the U.S., but it did no such thing. President Johnson committed the U.S. to fighting a foreign war AND instituting new welfare entitlements—his ‘guns and butter’ policy. In 1969 President Nixon could have reversed this policy, but he feared that the inevitable recession would mean the loss of a second term, so he simply reneged on Bretton Woods and ‘closed the gold window’ in 1971. So much for U.S. honor and prestige!” (Read more from patrickbarron.blogspot.com)

Obamanomics

Save Some Jobs by Destroying Many More
“Much of the Obama administration’s rationale for bailing out GM is that such actions will save American jobs. This is just one of the many unfortunate fallacies that stem from our century-old fiat money system.

Prior to the formation of the Federal Reserve System the American populace would have scoffed at such nonsense that the government can or even should tax all Americans in order to save the jobs of some Americans. It would have been apparent to anyone in the age of the gold standard that the government can give away only what it takes from someone else, exacting its overhead cost and throwing uncertainty of the future into the mix to boot. In the case of the GM bailout, the benefit will accrue to the unions, who bear primary responsibility for the systematic destruction of the American automobile industry since the 1930s. But the fact that we are no longer on a gold standard does not eliminate the economic truth that all of us who are not members of the United Auto Workers are being robbed by our government for the union members’ benefit.

The GM bailout perfectly illustrates why government gets away with this assault on the American taxpayers’ pocketbook. The benefit is concentrated and easily identified and quantified. The billions of bailout money will keep plants open and salaries flowing, at least for awhile. Smiling autoworkers–not all of them union members, of course—will be happy that they still have a job. I have no doubt that the mainstream media will interview them and allow them to relate how happy they are with the government’s actions.

But no one can interview the people whose jobs were lost or never created when the capital that would support them has been funneled to GM.” (Read more from patrickbarron.blogspot.com)

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Inflation Will Harm the Economy, Not Spur Recovery
“On Wednesday, May 20th Rich Miller of Bloomberg News reported that two well-known economists–former White House adviser Gregory Mankiw and Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff–recommended higher inflation to spur the U.S. economic recovery.

One would think that after so many decades of boom/bust business cycles and depreciation of the dollar to a mere fraction of its worth even Harvard economists would rethink their Keynesian philosophy. Inflation can occur only through the medium of exchange, of course, as too much money chases too few goods. It is caused by an expansion of the money supply, which one must assume is the desired mechanism for Mssrs Mankiw and Rogoff. But expansion of the money supply is what got us in this mess in the first place.

The artificial lowering of the interest rate spurred more long-term projects than could be completed with the limited resources at hand. More money will perpetuate and exacerbate this malinvestment by keeping capital destroying businesses in operation for a few more months. But more money will not cure the underlying problem. On the contrary, it will make it worse and make the necessary recession longer and deeper, meaning it will take years rather than months and cause higher unemployment and more loss of capital than would otherwise be the case.

The recession, of which higher unemployment is a manifestation, is an essential and inescapable process that must occur for the REAL economy to recover. Money losing businesses must close their doors and people must find work in profitable firms.” (Read more from patrickbarron.blogspot.com)